The authors propose that the canonical globalization -that of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries -was preceded by a century-long increasing economic integration between continents that were non-existent before 1492. By this term, the notion that a process of genuine globalization took place in the Early Modern Era is defended. 'Opportunities matter just as much as challenges.'ĭrafted by Will Rogers and edited by Rachel Weisshaar.This book presents an unusual view on one of the most influential periods in world economic history: the Early Globalization. 'Going into the future, we need more of an emphasis on places where policymakers can make a difference,' said Sciubba.

And with population aging and national security, often there's a lot more of what we don't know than what we do know,' she said. 'Policymakers like to know what we don't know and what we do know. Sciubba praised the report's comprehensive, policy-friendly approach to demography, but urged the authors to remain true to the nuances of their topic, even in their conclusions and recommendations. Meanwhile, China will experience a decade of 'premature aging' due to its one-child policy, it will become 'gray' before it achieves the per capita GDP of most aging countries. The populations of Russia and Eastern Europe will implode, and Russia's geopolitical strength and influence will wane. The Muslim world will experience a decade of temporary youth bulges, as the large generation that was born between 19 has children. The developed world will undergo hyper-aging, population decline, and flattening GDP growth, along with rising pension and health care costs, Jackson noted. Global demographic trends will converge in the 2020s to make that decade 'very challenging,' said Howe. These trends could push developing countries toward social collapse by acting 'as a kind of multiplier on all the stresses of development,' explained Jackson-for instance, causing China 'to lurch even more toward neo-authoritarianism.' The timing and pace of the demographic transition varies widely by country and region, with some countries transitioning too fast or too far, said Jackson. Additionally, the median age has risen from 20 to 26 years old, 'a cause for hope and optimism about the future,' Jackson argued, as countries with more balanced population age structures tend to be more democratic, prosperous, and peaceful than countries with extremely young ones.īut despite the long-term possibility of a world transitioning toward greater peace and prosperity, the developing world will still experience near-term shocks. Since 1970, the developing world's overall fertility rate has declined from 5.1 to 2.9 children per woman, and its overall population growth rate has dropped from 2.2 percent to 1.3 percent per year, according to Jackson. Jackson explained that the developing world is in the midst of the 'demographic transition'-the drops in mortality and fertility that generally accompany economic and social development. 'Voltaire once said that God is on the side of biggest battalions,' Howe reminded the audience. As developed countries' populations shrink, they will lose military might, savings and investment, entrepreneurship, and cultural influence. Without 'sizable immigration,' he warned, the populations of countries like the United States, France, Great Britain, Canada, Germany, and Japan will decline. 'Populations in most developed countries will not only age, but stagnate or decline,' due to falling fertility and rising longevity, said Howe.

Howe and co-author Richard Jackson, also of CSIS, were joined by Jennifer Sciubba of Rhodes College, who urged them and other demographers to explore how population trends interact with additional variables, such as environmental degradation, economic recession, and conflict. Demography is as close as social science comes to predicting the future, Howe explained, presenting the geopolitical consequences of demographic trends over the next 50 years.

'The whole world is aging, and the developed countries are leading the way,' said Neil Howe of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) at a January 27, 2009, Wilson Center discussion of his latest report, The Graying of the Great Powers: Demography and Geopolitics in the 21st Century. Careers, Fellowships, and Internships Open/Close.

Wahba Institute for Strategic Competition.Science and Technology Innovation Program.Refugee and Forced Displacement Initiative.The Middle East and North Africa Workforce Development Initiative.Kissinger Institute on China and the United States.Nuclear Proliferation International History Project.North Korea International Documentation Project.Environmental Change and Security Program.Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy.

Global demography in globalization